Don't Pedal Faster, Change the Rules: Mike Maples on Building Category-Defining Companies

The greatest startup successes often look like messy failures along the way. Mike Maples' journey to understanding pattern-breaking companies began with forgetting he owned shares in Twitch before its $970M acquisition by Amazon. This humbling experience launched him on a three-year quest to decode why some "poorly executing" startups achieve massive success while textbook-perfect companies fail.

Big Ideas:

1. Coming From the Future vs. Having Opinions About It
   • Great founders aren't just predicting the future - they're already living in it
   • Example: Bob Metcalfe at Xerox PARC could say "Of course everyone will want to share laser printers" because he was already using them
   • Key question for founders: "Is this from the future?"
   • Being in the future lets you see what's missing and what's possible
   • Living in the future gives you unique insights others can't see yet
     ‍
2. Startups Must Wage Asymmetric Warfare
   • Traditional businesses compound existing advantages and build moats
   • Startups must be catapults firing rocks to breach those moats
   • Success requires changing the rules rather than playing by existing ones
   • "Business is never a fair fight. The only question is, who fights unfair?"
     ‍
3. Inflection Points Drive Breakthrough Companies
   • An inflection point has three key components:
     • A specific new technological capability
     • Clear empowerment of new user behaviors
     • Viable conditions for adoption
   • Example: Lyft emerged from the iPhone 4S's GPS capability, enabling real-time ride matching
   • Success requires living in the future enabled by these inflections
   • The right inflection provides a first-mover advantage even if initial product approach fails
     ‍
4. Markets vs. Movements
   • Don't analyze Total Available Market (TAM) - it's already defined by incumbents
   • Focus on Total Future Market - what could exist in a different reality
   • Great startups create movements of true believers
   • Like MLK's civil rights movement, you convert early adopters who share your vision
   • Example: Airbnb didn't just compete with hotels, they redefined travel around "living like a local"
     ‍
5. The Power of Disagreeable Founders
   • Pattern-breaking requires provocative acts that challenge the status quo
   • Most people seek safety; successful founders embrace being contrarian
   • Insight must polarize - if everyone likes your idea, it's probably not disruptive enough
   • Being "disagreeable" isn't about personality, but willingness to challenge conventions

Back-casting vs. Forecasting

• Most people forecast: projecting forward from what exists
• Pattern-breakers backcast: start with a radically different future and work backwards
• Success requires finding people willing to "jump in the time machine" with you
• Focus only on those ready to move to the future with you - ignore everyone else

Practical Implications:

For Founders:

• Don't just have opinions about the future - find ways to live in it
• Look for environments where you can experience tomorrow's technology today
• Find inflection points that enable new forms of customer empowerment
• Build movements around true believers rather than chasing broad market appeal
• Be willing to appear crazy to the consensus while being right about the future

For Investors:

• Ask "Is this from the future?" rather than analyzing current market size
• Look for founders who are living in a different future, not just predicting it
• Accept that breakthroughs can't follow a recipe
• Focus on potential asymmetric upside rather than downside protection

‍

Remember Maples' core message: "A startup that matters is a provocative act. It's a disagreement with the present." Success requires not just execution, but insight about a radically different future and the courage to pursue it.

‍